We qualify some of the traditionally accepted results on the predictive power of the term spread over output. We show that in the case of short-term spreads, the direction of the predictive power may be the opposite to that usually found in the empirical literature, which has mostly rested on...

In this article, we test whether the structure of emerging market volatility has changed and assess the link between the structural changes in volatility behaviour and financial liberalization events. The opening of financial markets tends to generate outlying returns around the opening dates,...