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This article argues that high historical excess returns to equity were the result of a severe ex post bias in the period from 1915 to ca 1960 because inflation surprises during this period drove a wedge between ex ante and ex post returns to bonds. Furthermore, it is shown that ex ante and ex...
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premium in the US over the period 1926 to 1990. However, bond returns, in their simulations, are based on coupons only …
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The focus of this article is to examine the recent historical record of the US equity and government bond markets in an … method allows us to identify the dates where the equity index is negative coupled with positive government bond movements …
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