In the mid-eighties econometric forecasts and ex post simulations of private consumption in Norway began to show clear signs of "structural breakdown" .This evidence lends itself to two interpretations, distinct in their implications for econometric modelling of aggregate consumption. On the one...

Recent work by Clements and Hendry have shown why forecasting systems that are in terms of differences, dVARs, can be more accurate than economet- ric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from parameter non-constancies in the long run mean of the...

In recent years, the OECD has measured the structural rate of unemployment by an indicator called the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment. The NAWRU indicator is an important element in the policy analysis of the OECD. The rise in the estimated NAWRUs is also taken as evidence that Nordic...

Inflation targeting makes the Central Bank's conditional inflation forecast the operational target for monetary policy. Successful inflation targeting requires knowing the transmission mechanisms to inflation from shocks as well as instruments. The econometric implications are that the...

Economic theories of imperfectely competitive labour markets predict that wages are linked to profits. In spite of this, profit variables are not explicitely specified in empirical models of wage formation that otherwise appear to be interpretable, to have well behaved residuals and to have...

Estimates of the NAIRU are usually derived either from a Phillips curve or from a wage curve. This paper investigates the correspondence between the operational NAIRU-concepts and the steady state of a dynamic wage-price model. We derive the parameter restrictions that secure that...

Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically. We establish that Standard Phillips-curve...

After a forecast failure, a respecification is usually necessary to account for the data ex post, in which case there is a gain in knowledge as a result of the forecast failure. Using Norwegian consumption as an example, we show that the financial deregulation in the mid 1980s led to forecast...