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A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors

Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia; Wong, Benjamin - 2021

We jointly estimate the U.S. business and financial cycle through a unified empirical approach while simultaneously accounting for the role of financial factors. Our approach uses the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Autore-gression. First, we show, both in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622302

A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors

Berger, Tino; Richter, Julia; Wong, Benjamin - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626263

Time-varying business volatility, price setting, and the real effects of monetary policy

Bachmann, Ruediger; Born, Benjamin; Elstner, Steffen; … - 2013

Does time-varying business volatility affect the price setting of firms and thus the transmission of monetary policy into the real economy? To address this question, we estimate from the firm-level micro data of the German IFO Business Climate Survey the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009767295

Uncertainty and the Great Recession

Born, Benjamin; Breuer, Sebastian; Elstner, Steffen - 2014 - This version: November 5, 2014

Has heightened uncertainty been a major contributor to the Great Recession and the slow recovery in the U.S.? To answer this question, we identify exogenous changes in six uncertainty proxies and quantify their contributions to GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Our results are threefold....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429213

Real effects of sovereign bond market spillovers in the euro area

Gadatsch, Niklas - 2015

This paper develops a small open economy model to investigate the impact of rising sovereign bond market spreads on the real economy. One key element of the model is a "sovereign risk channel" through which tensions in the sovereign bond market tend to spill over into private credit markets. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512139

Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area

Weiske, Sebastian - 2018

The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277

On the macroeconomic effects of immigration : a VAR analysis for the US

Weiske, Sebastian - 2019

This paper estimates the quarterly flow of migrants to the US working age population using data based on the Current Population Survey (CPS). The dynamic responses to immigration shocks are estimated in a vector autoregression. Immigration shocks, as well as technology shocks are identified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980497

Population growth, the natural rate of interest, and inflation

Weiske, Sebastian - 2019

Population growth rates have fallen considerably in most developed countries. An important question for monetary policy is whether this has led to a fall in the natural rate of interest. In representative agent models, the response of the natural rate to a fertility shock crucially depends on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980508

Immigration, education and native wage inequality

Lumpe, Christian; Weigert, Benjamin - 2010

robust irrespective of labour market institutions as, e.g., with a rigid wage regime featuring unemployment. Additionally …, the model is applied to assess the impact on within-skill-group wage inequality. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010313066

Does composition matter? Wage inequality and the demographic and educational structure of the labor force in Gemany

Klemm, Marcus; Weigert, Benjamin - 2014

This paper addresses the importance of compositional changes in the labor force for the development of the wage …/or better education. These groups are characterized by higher relative wages as well as higher within-group wage inequality …. Mechanically, these compositional shifts entail a rise in wage inequality. We demonstrate this mechanism theoretically and present …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010427092