Similar Search Results

Global credit risk : world, country and industry factors

Schwaab, Bernd; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André - 2015

area sovereign debt crises. We find that macro and default-specific world factors are a primary source of default …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484886

Systemic risk diagnostics : coincident indicators and early warning signals

Schwaab, Bernd; Lucas, André; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2010

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771823

Generalized dynamic panel data models with random effects for cross-section and time

Mesters, Geert; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009722706

Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505

A weak bifurcation theory for discrete time stochastic dynamical systems

Diks, Cees G. H.; Wagener, Florian Oskar Ottokar - 2006

This article presents a bifurcation theory of smooth stochastic dynamical systems that are governed by everywhere … of the system. By introducing a weak equivalence notion of these dependence ratios, we arrive at a bifurcation theory for … which in the compact case, the set of stable (non-bifurcating) systems is open and dense. The theory is illustrated with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349208

Estimating systematic continuous-time trends in recidivism using a non-Gaussian panel data model

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; Ooms, Marius; … - 2007

We model panel data of crime careers of juveniles from a Dutch Judicial Juvenile Institution. The data are decomposed into a systematic and an individual-specific component, of which the systematic component reflects the general time-varying conditions including the criminological climate....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372520

Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks

Bos, Charles S.; Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2007

We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822

Possibly ill-behaved posteriors in econometric models

Hoogerheide, Lennart; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2008

Highly non-elliptical posterior distributions may occur in several econometric models, in particular, when the likelihood information is allowed to dominate and data information is weak. We explain the issue of highly non-elliptical posteriors in a model for the effect of education on income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374406

Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lee, Kai Ming - 2008

Unobserved components time series models decompose a time series into a trend, a season, a cycle, an irregular disturbance, and possibly other components. These models have been successfully applied to many economic time series. The standard assumption of a linear model, often appropriate after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374413

The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model

Creal, Drew; Koopman, Siem Jan; Zivot, Eric - 2008

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640