Richiardi, Matteo; Poggi, Ambra - Collegio Carlo Alberto, Università degli Studi di Torino - 2012
Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...