"Should monetary policymakers take the staff forecast of the effects of policy actions as given, or should they attempt to include additional information? This paper seeks to shed light on this question by testing the usefulness of the FOMC's own forecasts. Twice a year, the FOMC makes forecasts...

Intro -- Contents -- List of Illustrations -- Foreword by Robert J. Shiller -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Chapter 1. Through the Looking Glass: Central Bank Transparency -- Chapter 2. Ex Uno Plures: Central Banking by Committee -- Chapter 3. Following the Leader: The Central Bank and the...