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Sovereign Risk, Elections, and Contagion

Li, Chi; Balding, Christopher; Lee, Minsoo - 2013

This paper aims to quantify the political risk effect and its different economic implications in normal and crisis situations through the proxy analysis of election and the sovereign bond spreads. Our study leads to three main findings. First, in normal economic situations, elections and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014156641

The Development of Local Currency Bond Markets and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity

Park, Cyn-Young; Shin, Kwanho - 2023

. However, greater carry trade positions may increase a country’s exposure to market disruptions and exchange rate volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254706

Quarterly Forecasting Model for India’s Economic Growth : Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach

Iyer, Tara - 2019

This study develops a framework to forecast India's gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890170

Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016

Ferrarini, Benno - 2019

This paper assesses the accuracy of Asian Development Outlook growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016, against the benchmark of World Economic Outlook projections by the International Monetary Fund. They are found to overlap quite closely, notwithstanding much...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892014

Nowcasting Indonesia

Luciani, Matteo - 2015

We produce predictions of the current state of the Indonesian economy by estimating a Dynamic Factor Model on a dataset of 11 indicators (also followed closely by market operators) over the time period 2002 to 2014. Besides the standard difficulties associated with constructing timely indicators...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013009378

Asian Development Outlook Forecast Skill

Ferrarini, Benno - 2014

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049286

Predicting Poverty Using Geospatial Data in Thailand

Puttanapong, Nattapong; Martinez, Jr., Arturo; Addawe, … - 2021

Poverty statistics are conventionally compiled using data from household income and expenditure survey or living standards survey. This study examines an alternative approach in estimating poverty by investigating whether readily available geospatial data can accurately predict the spatial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241472

A Multi-Factor Measure for Cross-Market Liquidity Commonality

Wang, Jian-Xin - 2011

not be fully captured by this single factor. Other factors, e.g., aggregate return and volatility, may also contribute to … regional factors affect liquidity commonality through shocks in liquidity and volatility, while global factors affect liquidity … commonality through return and volatility. Cross-market liquidity commonality in Asia increased significantly during and after the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128663

Do Contagion Effects Exist in Capital Flow Volatility?

Lee, Hyun-Hoon - 2012

The paper aims to assess what influences volatility of capital flows to emerging countries and whether or not there is … a spillover or contagion effect in the volatility. The empirical results suggest strong and significant contagion … effects from global and regional volatilities on the volatility of capital flows in different types to individual economies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098100

International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities : A Panel Analysis

Lee, Hyun-Hoon - 2013

dynamics of food price inflation and volatility is essential in designing appropriate policy responses. Using the panel data … volatilities as well as the effects of various internal and external factors on domestic food price inflation and volatility. The … paper offers evidence in support of the international transmission of food price inflation and volatility. Specifically, the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013076407