This paper analyzes the empirical relationships among demographic changes, saving, and current account balances in East Asia. The panel Vector-Auto Regressive (VAR) model shows that an increase in the dependency rate, especially the elderly dependency rate, significantly lowers saving rates and...

The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of the global economic impacts of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) as well as to provide a more comprehensive approach to estimating the global consequences of major disease outbreaks. Our empirical estimates of the economic effects...

This paper studies the unusual features of emerging economy business cycles in Asia. When we assess whether approaches from the previous literature can explain Asian business cycles, we conclude that standard models based on permanent growth shocks do not replicate key features of Asian business...

This paper examines the effects of internal (or regional) vs. external (inter-regional) integration and of trade vs. financial integration on regional business cycle synchronization in Asia. The empirical results show the following: (1) similar and strong common external linkages have...

This paper estimates the degree of risk sharing for each of 10 East Asian countries with countries in the region and with OECD countries by using cross-country consumption correlations and formal regression analysis. Risk sharing is found to be far from complete and quite low for most of the...

This study examines the effects of capital account restrictions on capital flows in nine emerging Asian economies using panel regressions with 75 economies and fixed effects over the period 1995–2007. The results show that effectiveness of capital controls in the nine emerging Asian economies...

This paper examines the unfolding of the U.S. sub-prime-generated turmoil and its potential spillover effects on Asia's emerging financial systems. The sub-prime mortgage mess has revealed key structural weaknesses in the evolution of modern credit markets. Although emerging Asian financial...

The buildup in government debt in response to the “great recession,” has raised a number of policy dilemmas for individual countries as well as the world as a whole. The recent need for a change of fiscal policy stance has fuelled debates about the impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic...

Our simulations of a global macroeconomic model suggest that China's WTO accession could create significant welfare losses in the ASEAN-4 if foreign direct investment (FDI) is significantly redirected away from these countries toward China, and if the ASEAN-4 countries are unable to implement...

This paper explores the composition of the macroeconomic policy packages that would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy. An empirical econometric model is used to predict the consequences of a monetary stimulus consisting of an open-market purchase of government bonds by the Bank of...