The LIBOR market model is very popular for pricing interest rate derivatives, but is known to have several pitfalls. In addition, if the model is driven by a jump process, then the complexity of the drift term is growing exponentially fast (as a function of the tenor length). In this work, we...

The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte Carlo pricing of derivatives in LIBOR market models. Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods are generally slow. Our...

We extend the VAR based intertemporal asset allocation approach from Campbell et al. (2003) to the case where the VAR parameter estimates are adjusted for small-sample bias. We apply the analytical bias formula from Pope (1990) using both Campbell et al.'s dataset, and an extended dataset with...

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea. Design/methodology/approach - The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of...

Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash ?ow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news. Only for two countries - Germany and Ireland - do changing expectations of future rents play a dominating role in explaining housing return...

We investigate the predictive power of the rent-to-price ratio for future real estate returns and rent growth in 18 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2011. First, we document that in most countries returns are signi?cantly predictable by the rent-price ratio. An increase (decrease) in the...

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend-price ratio is considered a 'stylized fact' in post war US data. Using long-term data, covering more than 80 years from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We find...

This paper studies the effect of time–inhomogeneous jumps and leverage type effects on realised variance calculations when the logarithmic asset price is given by a Lévy–driven stochastic volatility model. In such a model, the realised variance is an inconsistent estimator of the integrated...

Based on Chen and Zhao's (2009) criticism of VAR based return decompositions, we explain in detail the various limitations and pitfalls involved in such decompositions. First, we show that Chen and Zhao's interpretation of their excess bond return decomposition is wrong: the residual component...