We extend the VAR based intertemporal asset allocation approach from Campbell et al. (2003) to the case where the VAR parameter estimates are adjusted for small-sample bias. We apply the analytical bias formula from Pope (1990) using both Campbell et al.'s dataset, and an extended dataset with...

Motivated by the implications from a stylized equilibrium pricing framework, we investigate empirically how individual equity prices respond to continuous, or \smooth," and jumpy, or \rough," market price moves, and how these different market price risks, or betas, are priced in the...

We include simultaneously both realized volatility measures based on high-frequency asset returns and implied volatilities backed out of individual traded at the money option prices in a state space approach to the analysis of true underlying volatility. We model integrated volatility as a...

Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea. Design/methodology/approach - The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of...

Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash ?ow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news. Only for two countries - Germany and Ireland - do changing expectations of future rents play a dominating role in explaining housing return...

We analyze the high-frequency dynamics of S&P 500 equity-index option prices by constructing an assortment of implied volatility measures. This allows us to infer the underlying fine structure behind the innovations in the latent state variables driving the movements of the volatility surface....

We investigate the predictive power of the rent-to-price ratio for future real estate returns and rent growth in 18 OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2011. First, we document that in most countries returns are signi?cantly predictable by the rent-price ratio. An increase (decrease) in the...

We show that the compensation for rare events accounts for a large fraction of the equity and variance risk premia in the S&P 500 market index. The probability of rare events vary significantly over time, increasing in periods of high market volatility, but the risk premium for tail events...

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend-price ratio is considered a 'stylized fact' in post war US data. Using long-term data, covering more than 80 years from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We find...