Showing 1 - 10 of 10
There is a broad agreement that transportation activity is closely linked to the business cycle. Nevertheless, data from the transportation sector have not been part of the tool kit of business cycle analysts due to long publications lags. With the disseminations of electronic road pricing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009687777
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National accounts are subject to major revisions. To improve the reliability of the first release data, it is important to know whether these revisions show systematic patterns, or in other words, whether national accounts are informational efficient in the sense that they incorporate all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012320608
Viele Menschen interessieren sich für die künftige Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (BIP), der Arbeitslosenzahlen, der Preise oder der Staatsausgaben. Dass Konjunkturprognosen jedoch umstritten sind, liegt auch an einem Missverständnis: Sie können und sollen keine exakte Vorhersage...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917407
The Diebold-Mariano-Test has become a common tool to compare the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. Since these are typically model-free forecasts, distribution free tests might be a good alternative to the Diebold-Mariano-Test. This paper suggests a permutation test. Stochastic simulations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134397
In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003785071
Since the iron and steel sector contributes considerably to industrial CO2 emissions it is important to identify the underlying factors driving steel demand. Using a panel dataset this paper examines the interrelation of steel demand with GDP and its composition, in particular the investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752226
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473134
The accuracy of macroeconomic forecast depends on various factors, most importantly the mix of analytical methods used by the individual forecasters, the way that their personal experience is shaping their identification strategies, but also their efficiency in translating new information into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008933291
Die Belastung mit Steuern und Abgaben hat seit 2010 deutlich zugenommen. Laut einer neuen RWI-Studie müssen bereits Arbeitnehmerhaushalte mit einem Bruttoeinkommen zwischen 40.000 und 50.000 Euro pro Jahr rund 48% ihres Einkommens an den Staat abgeben. Diese hohe Belastungsquote steigt auch bei...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011749806