Showing 1 - 10 of 48
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013049852
This paper builds a macro-prudential tool designed to assess whether the banking sector is adequately prepared to orderly withstand losses resulting from normal or stressed macroeconomic and micro-economic scenarios. The link between the banking sector and the real sector is established via the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075928
solved for the purpose of forecasting and scenario simulation. The application involves two cross-sections: sovereigns and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078534
This paper proposes a general statistical framework for systemic financial stress indices which measure the severity of financial crises on a continuous scale. Several index designs from the financial stress and systemic risk literature can be represented as special cases. We introduce an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374786
This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the link between financial imbalances and financial crises. The model features an interbank market subject to frictions and where two equilibria may (co-)exist. The normal times equilibrium is characterized by a deep market with highly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128290
improves the performance of discrete choice models in forecasting systemic events. Our framework shows a good out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128992
This paper studies the relationship between the size of the banking sector's refinancing needs vis-à-vis the central bank and auction rates in its open market operations in times of financial market stress. In a theoretical model, it is found that marginal rates at central bank auctions may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132236
This paper studies the relative pricing of euro area sovereign CDS and the underlying government bonds. Our sample comprises weekly CDS and bond spreads of ten euro area countries for the period from January 2006 to June 2010. We first compare the determinants of CDS spreads and bond spreads and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135678
Global trade contracted quickly and severely during the global crisis. This paper, using a unique dataset of French firms, matching together export data with firm-level credit constraints, shows that most of the 2008-2009 trade collapse is accounted by the unprecedented demand shock and by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138158
policymaker's preferences, and the forecasting horizons …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013120562