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A unified framework for dimension reduction in forecasting

Barbarino, Alessandro; Bura, Efstathia - 2017

series forecasting models for economic variables. In these models, the reduction of the predictors and the modeling and … forecasting of the response y are carried out in two separate and independent phases. We introduce a potentially more attractive … of widely used macroeconomic series data with one or two sufficient reductions delivering similar forecasting performance …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708094

Income inequality, financial crises, and monetary policy

Cairó, Isabel; Sim, Jae W. - 2018

We construct a general equilibrium model in which income inequality results in insufficient aggregate demand, deflation pressure, and excessive credit growth by allocating income to agents featuring low marginal propensity to consume, and if excessive, can lead to an endogenous financial crisis....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932429

Labor Force Participation : Recent Developments and Future Prospects

Aaronson, Stephanie - 2014

Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047177

Unemployment risk

Kiley, Michael T. - 2018 - Version 3

Fluctuations in upside risks to unemployment over the medium term are examined using quantile regressions. U.S. experience reveals an elevated risk of large increases in unemployment when inflation or credit growth is high and when the unemployment rate is low. Inflation was a significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016326

How fast are semiconductor prices falling?

Byrne, David; Oliner, Stephen; Sichel, Daniel E. - 2017

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast to the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708124

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

Chung, Hess T.; Fallick, Bruce; Nekarda, Christopher J.; … - 2022

This paper describes a dynamic factor model of 19 U.S. labor market indicators, covering the broad categories of unemployment and underemployment, employment, workweeks, wages, vacancies, hiring, layoffs, quits, and surveys of consumers' and businesses' perceptions. The resulting labor market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088089

Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions

Chung, Hess T. - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031124

General-Equilibrium Effects of Investment Tax Incentives

Edge, Rochelle M. - 2011

This paper develops a new-Keynesian model with nominal depreciation allowances to consider the effects of temporary tax-based investment incentives on capital spending and real activity. In particular, we investigate the effects of a temporary expensing allowance on investment in partial and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128646

Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?

Mertens, Elmar - 2011

No, not really, since spectral estimators suffer from small sample and misspecification biases just as VARs do. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In addition, when combining VAR coefficients with non-parametric estimates of the spectral density, care...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128713

The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts

Sharpe, Steven A. - 2020

. Quantile regressions indicate that most of sentiment's forecasting power arises from signaling downside risks to the economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834185

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