Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a … trend component of unemployment, which triggers permanent reactions of the workers, is likely connected to a structural … effect. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate our analysis differs profoundly from …

Individual unemployment spells are frequently interrupted by short casual employment, by participation in active labour … market policy (ALMP) measures or by periods outside the labour force. Such episodes end unemployment spells but afterwards … problem of being without a "real" job in the longer run. To better grasp this problem of repeated unemployment we analyse …

forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their … expectations of future labor market developments. We generate an aggregate unemployment leading indicator that exploits serial …

suggest that regional mismatch did not play an important role in explaining movements of aggregate unemployment. Across … industries and occupations, there was a decrease in mismatch unemployment from over 5 percent to below 4 percent (on the highest … disaggregation level), whereas the share of mismatch unemployment (across industries and occupations) within total unemployment …

from employment into unemployment in April 2020 were due to the containment measures. In a second approach, we make use of … the unemployment effect coming from the separations margin. In sum, the lockdown measures increased unemployment in the …

In this paper we study the effect of small labor market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a … theoretical point of view, decreasing cohort sizes may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to "inverse cohort crowding" or on … the other hand increase unemployment if companies reduce jobs disproportionately. Consequently, the actual effect of …