Every monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is accompanied by a written statement about the state of the economy and the policy outlook, but only every second decision by a published interest rate forecast. We exploit this difference to study the relative influences...

This paper studies a modern monetary economy: trade in both goods and securities relies on money provided by intermediaries. While money is valued for its liquidity, its creation requires costly leverage. Inflation, security prices and the transmission of monetary policy then depend on the...

On 18-19 June 2004, the BIS held a conference on "Understanding Low Inflation and Deflation". This event brought together central bankers, academics and market practitioners to exchange views on this issue (see the conference programme in this document). This paper was presented at the workshop....

We extend the basic (representative-household) New Keynesian [NK] model ofthe monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interestrate available to savers and borrowers, that can vary for either exogenous orendogenous reasons. We nd that the mere existence of a positive...

The paper analyses and compares the domestic and cross-border effects of US and euro area unconventional monetary policy measures on 24 major advanced and emerging economies, based on an estimated global vector error-correction model (GVECM). Unconventional monetary policies are measured using...

Based on empirical VAR models, we investigate the role of (option-implied) stock and bond market volatilities and monetary policy in the determination of the US 10-year term premium. Our preliminary findings are that an unexpected loosening of monetary policy - through a cut in the federal funds...

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...

Global current account imbalances have been at the forefront of policy debates over the past few years. Many observers have recently singled them out as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have...

This essay argues that the Achilles heel of the international monetary and financial system is that it amplifies the "excess financial elasticity" of domestic policy regimes, ie it exacerbates their inability to prevent the build-up of financial imbalances, or outsize financial cycles, that lead...

This paper revisits the equilibrium and welfare effects of long-run inflation in the presence of distortionary taxes and financial constraints. Expected inflation interacts with corporate taxation through the deductibility of i) capital expenditures at historical value and ii) interest payments...