Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper …, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the … inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that the conventional trade …

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data … power for future inflation. The real money gap contains more information about future inflation than the output gap and the … Eurosystem's money-growth indicator is an inferior indicator of future inflation …

are clearly present and explain around 24% of inflation differentials vis-a-vis the euro area (about 1.2 percentage points … total domestic inflation (about 1.1 percentage points on average). The paper presents mixed evidence on whether the Balassa …

reaction function. The parameter estimates differ in two regards: the NEER responds to inflation in Singapore but not in Hong … variability of inflation has been lower in Singapore, but the volatility of real economic activity has been similar in the two …

This paper studies the joint dynamics of real-time U.S. inflation and average inflation predictions of the Survey of … unobserved components (UC) model of inflation and a sticky information (SI) prediction mechanism for the SPF predictions. We add … drifting gap inflation persistence to a UC model in which stochastic volatility (SV) affects trend and gap inflation. Another …

A common practice in studies using inflation forecasts is to approximate fixed-horizon forecasts with fixed-event ones …. Here we show that this may be problematic. In a panel of US inflation forecast data that allows us to compare the two, the … inflation), and statistically significant differences in both the variances and persistence of the approximate inflation …

shocks on wages and inflation but heighten the impact of technology shocks. Informality also increases the sacrifice ratio of … inflation volatility for some type of shocks but makes monetary policy less effective …

We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New Keynesian Phillips curve framework …Q1-2017Q4 period. We find broadly that both global and domestic output gaps are significant drivers of inflation both in … output gaps on inflation …

inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in a long panel to identify age structure effects in inflation, controlling for … increases. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about 7 percentage points of US … disinflation since the 1980s. It predicts rising inflation over the coming decades …