Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real...

This paper develops an empirical procedure for analyzing the impact of model misspecification and calibration errors on measures of portfolio credit risk. When applied to large simulated portfolios with realistic characteristics, this procedure reveals that violations of key assumptions of the...

The large economic costs associated with the Global Financial Crisis have generated renewed interest in macroprudential policies and their international coordination. Based on a core-periphery model that emphasizes the role of international financial centers, we study the effects of coordinated...

The real effective exchange rate (REER) is one of the most cited statistical constructs in open-economy macroeconomics. We show that the models used to compute these numbers are not rich enough to allow for the rising importance of global value chains. Moreover, because different sectors within...

This paper explores the basic question of whose monetary policy matters for banks' international lending. In the international context, monetary policies from several countries could come into play: the lender's, the borrower's, and that of a third country, the issuer of the currency in which...

The gains from international macroprudential policy coordination are studied in a two-region, core-periphery macroeconomic model with imperfect financial integration and cross-border banking. Financial frictions occur at two levels: between firms and banks in each region, and between periphery...

The unique structure of syndicated lending results in information asymmetries within the lending syndicate between banks of varying degrees of seniority. While previous studies have attempted to use indirect proxy measures to capture the effects of such information asymmetries, in this paper we...

We investigate global factors associated with bank capital flows. We formulate a model of the international banking system where global banks interact with local banks. The solution highlights the bank leverage cycle as the determinant of the transmission of financial conditions across borders...

This paper investigates the effect of cyclical macroeconomic policy and financial sector characteristics on growth. Using cross-country, cross-industry OECD data, it yields two main findings. First, countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies foster growth disproportionately in more...

We find that declining bank credit to the private sector will not necessarily constrain the economic recovery after output has bottomed out following a financial crisis. To obtain this result, we examine data from 39 financial crises, which -- as the current one -- were preceded by credit booms....