This paper argues that incorporating information about the financial cycle is important to improve measures of potential output and output gaps. Conceptually, identifying potential output with non-inflationary output is too restrictive. Potential output is seen as sustainable; yet experience...

This paper questions the appropriateness of popular analytical frameworks that focus on current accounts or net capital flows as a basis for assessing the pattern of cross-border capital flows, the degree of financial integration and the vulnerability of countries to financial crises. In the...

A popular strategy for estimating output gaps is to anchor them to structural economic relationships. The resulting output gaps, however, are often highly sensitive to numerous auxiliary assumptions inherent in the approach. This complicates their use in policymaking. We illustrate the point...

We assess the link between fiscal policy and credit and commodity price booms and busts. We do so by investigating the impact of financial and commodity price cycles on the identification of episodes of fiscal consolidation and stimulus and the size of the fiscal impulse. We find that...

We assess the role of external debt in shaping the dynamics of domestic credit cycles. Using quarterly data for 40 countries between 1980 and 2015, we examine four dimensions of external debt composition: instrument, sector, currency and maturity. We show that the first two dimensions provide...

This essay examines in detail the properties of a well functioning monetary system - defined as money plus the mechanisms to execute payments - in both the short and long run, drawing on both theory and the lessons from history. It stresses the importance of trust and of the institutions needed...

We theoretically analyze the interactions between asset prices, nancial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. If the interest rate is constrained, a rise in the risk premium lowers asset prices and generates a demand recession. This reduces...

This paper studies a modern monetary economy: trade in both goods and securities relies on money provided by intermediaries. While money is valued for its liquidity, its creation requires costly leverage. Inflation, security prices and the transmission of monetary policy then depend on the...

Risk-free rates have been falling since the 1980s while the return on capital has not. We analyse these trends in a calibrated overlapping-generations model with recursive preferences, designed to encompass many of the "usual suspects" cited in the debate on secular stagnation. Deleveraging...

The recent global financial crisis has led central banks to rely heavily on "unconventional" monetary policies. This alternative approach to policy has generated much discussion and a heated and at times confusing debate. The debate has been complicated by the use of different definitions and...