We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions … of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the … inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with those of UK consumers, for which we use data …

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and … answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common … information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results …

There has been mounting evidence that the inflation process has been changing. Inflation is now much lower and much … more effective. There is no doubt in our mind that this explanation goes a long way towards explaining the better inflation …. We argue that prevailing models of inflation are too country-centric, in the sense that they fail to take sufficient …

-term inflation target to help anchor expectations. This paper aims to document how much the release of the forecasts of one major … central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), has influenced private sector expectations of inflation, and whether the degree of … influence depends to any degree on the adoption of an inflation target (IT). Consistent with earlier studies, we find the …

inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that both inflation bias and deflationary bias can exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions of … this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …

Well anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary policy. In the past …, anchoring has been assessed using either long-run inflation surveys or break-even inflation rates on financial assets with long … maturities. But neither of these is ideal. Here we propose an alternative measure of inflation anchoring that makes full use of …

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual … inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Japan, we find that the estimated …. Further, the degree to which these anchors pin down inflation expectations at longer horizons has increased, but remains …

inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices …. Using a Phillips Curve framework we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation …

of professional analysts, but may be more relevant for understanding inflation dynamics. Here we compare inflation … point, or "implicit anchor", towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. We find that the estimated inflation … anchors of analysts lie within the 3-6 percent inflation target range of the central bank. However, those for businesses and …

In this paper we explore the role that exchange rate interventions may play in determining inflation expectations in … Chile. To that end, we consider a set of nine deciles of inflation expectations coming from the survey of professional …