We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions … of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the … inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) with those of UK consumers, for which we use data …

inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint …, we show that both inflation bias and deflationary bias can exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions of … this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct …

Well anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary policy. In the past …, anchoring has been assessed using either long-run inflation surveys or break-even inflation rates on financial assets with long … maturities. But neither of these is ideal. Here we propose an alternative measure of inflation anchoring that makes full use of …

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual … inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Japan, we find that the estimated …. Further, the degree to which these anchors pin down inflation expectations at longer horizons has increased, but remains …

of professional analysts, but may be more relevant for understanding inflation dynamics. Here we compare inflation … point, or "implicit anchor", towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. We find that the estimated inflation … anchors of analysts lie within the 3-6 percent inflation target range of the central bank. However, those for businesses and …

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual … inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Canada and the US, we identify … three key differences between the two countries. First, the average estimated anchor of US inflation forecasts has tended to …

In this paper we explore the role that exchange rate interventions may play in determining inflation expectations in … Chile. To that end, we consider a set of nine deciles of inflation expectations coming from the survey of professional …

We analyse the behaviour of inflation expectations during periods of deflation, using a large cross-country data set of … deflations. Deflations are associated with a downward shift in inflation expectations and a somewhat higher backward …

We study the anchoring properties of long-term inflation expectations in emerging and advanced economies, as a measure … of monetary policy credibility. We proxy anchoring by how short-term expectations relate to long-term inflation … expectations. We find that long-term inflation expectations are less well anchored in emerging than in advanced economies for the …

inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices …. Using a Phillips Curve framework we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation …