Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008) the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we...

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the...

Well anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary policy. In the past, anchoring has been assessed using either long-run inflation surveys or break-even inflation rates on financial assets with long maturities. But neither of these is ideal. Here we...

Assigning a discretionary central bank a mandate to stabilize an average inflation rate - rather than a period-by-period inflation rate - increases welfare in a New Keynesian model with an occasionally binding lower bound on nominal interest rates. Under rational expectations, the...

How central banks can best communicate to the market is an increasingly important topic in the central banking literature. With ever greater frequency, central banks communicate to the market through the forecasts of prices and output with the purposes of reducing uncertainty; at the same time,...

Large-scale forex intervention in emerging market economies (EMEs) aimed at resisting currency appreciation has major implications for the composition of banking system balance sheets. The domestic monetary consequences depend on the nature of central bank liabilities that are the counterpart of...

The adoption of a managed regime assumes that interventions are relatively successful. However, while some authors consider that foreign exchange interventions are not effective, arguing that domestic and foreign assets are close substitutes, others advocate their use and maintain that their...

This study presents indirect evidence of the effectiveness of sterilized interventions in Brazil based on the complete records of daily customer order flow data reported by Brazilian dealers, as well as foreign exchange intervention data over a time span of 10 years (2002-2011). We find that the...

This article applies a noisy information model with strategic interactions à la Morris and Shin (2002) to a panel from the Central Bank of Brazil Market Expectations System to provide evidence of how professional forecasters weight private and public information when building inflation...