We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy...

The paper analyses and compares the domestic and cross-border effects of US and euro area unconventional monetary policy measures on 24 major advanced and emerging economies, based on an estimated global vector error-correction model (GVECM). Unconventional monetary policies are measured using...

We assess the empirical validity of the trilemma or impossible trinity in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies. To do so, we estimate Taylor rule-type monetary policy reaction functions, relating the local policy rate to real-time forecasts of domestic...

The recent global financial crisis, the Great Recession and the subsequent implementation of a variety of unconventional policy measures have raised the issue of how to correctly measure the stance of monetary policy when policy interest rates reach the zero lower bound (ZLB). In this paper, we...

We study the impact of US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error correction model (GVECM). We focus on the effects of reductions in the US term and corporate spreads. The estimated effects of QE are sizeable and vary across...

This paper studies the evolution of the equilibrium real interest rate (ie natural or neutral interest rate) in Asia-Pacific. I take an empirical approach to estimate the rate, simple estimates suggest that except for China, and Thailand since 2005, the natural interest rate may have declined...

We develop a stylised shadow banking map for China with the aim of providing a coherent picture of its structure and the associated financial system interlinkages. Five key characteristics emerge. One defining feature of the shadow banking system in China is the dominant role of commercial...

This paper reviews research carried out on exchange rates and monetary policy by central banks that participated at the Autumn Meeting of Central Bank Economists on "Exchange rates and monetary policy", which the BIS hosted on 28-29 October 2004. The first part of the paper focuses on the...

We examine several major exchange rate puzzles: the excess volatility of real exchange rates; their excess reaction to the real interest rate differentials; the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) puzzle; the excess persistence of real exchange rates; the exchange rate disconnect puzzle; and the...