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facts: (i) the long-run link between money growth and inflation and (ii) the link between credit growth and financial crises …. The analysis reveals that the former has weakened over time, while the latter has become stronger. Moreover, the money-inflation … two monetary facts. The money-inflation link is weaker in regimes characterised by low inflation and highly liberalised …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989876
Beginning with the global financial crisis (2008) the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term and forward … inflation expectations increased leading to fears of their un-anchoring. Using the first principal component of commodity prices …. Using a Phillips Curve framework we find a structural change after the collapse of Lehman Brothers when inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012916305
Few areas of monetary economics have been studied as extensively as the transmission mechanism. The literature on this topic has evolved substantially over the years, following the waxing and waning of conceptual frameworks and the changing characteristics of the financial system. In this paper,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012710837
reaction function. The parameter estimates differ in two regards: the NEER responds to inflation in Singapore but not in Hong … variability of inflation has been lower in Singapore, but the volatility of real economic activity has been similar in the two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012711720
The remarkable stability of low domestic inflation in many countries requires explanation. In this paper, a number of … continuing low inflation, but also its coexistence with rapid growth and low real interest rates. Unfortunately, the analysis … also leads to the conclusion that rising inflation, unwinding financial imbalances, or both, could easily follow the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218878
There has been mounting evidence that the inflation process has been changing. Inflation is now much lower and much … more effective. There is no doubt in our mind that this explanation goes a long way towards explaining the better inflation …. We argue that prevailing models of inflation are too country-centric, in the sense that they fail to take sufficient …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014224261
Several countries are concurrently experiencing historically low inflation rates and ageing populations. Is there a … of 22 countries over the 1955-2010 period. We find a stable and significant correlation between demography and low …-frequency inflation. In particular, a larger share of dependents (ie young and old) is correlated with higher inflation, while a larger …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013028481
-term inflation target to help anchor expectations. This paper aims to document how much the release of the forecasts of one major … central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), has influenced private sector expectations of inflation, and whether the degree of … influence depends to any degree on the adoption of an inflation target (IT). Consistent with earlier studies, we find the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982425
Prevailing explanations of the decline in real interest rates since the early 1980s are premised on the notion that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment. But based on data stretching back to 1870 for 19 countries, our systematic analysis casts doubt on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941033
Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012896767