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spillovers could be strongly negative and world trade could decline substantially. …
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components for a large data set comprising the U.S., the EU-27 area, and the respective rest of the world. Credit risk conditions …
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We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes...
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