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~isPartOf:"BIS working papers"
~isPartOf:"Discussion paper / Statistics Netherlands"
~isPartOf:"Discussion paper / Tinbergen Institute"
~isPartOf:"Discussion paper series / UCL Economics"
~isPartOf:"Economics and finance working paper series"
~isPartOf:"HWWA discussion paper"
~isPartOf:"Research memorandum / METEOR"
~isPartOf:"Study paper"
~isPartOf:"Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston"
~language:"eng"
~person:"Florax, Raymond J. G. M."
~person:"Francois, Joseph F."
~person:"Gil-Alaña, Luis A."
~person:"Heckman, James J."
~person:"Koopman, Siem Jan"
~person:"Marrewijk, Charles van"
~person:"Pozzi, Lorenzo"
~person:"Ravazzolo, Francesco"
~subject:"Bayesian inference"
~subject:"Economic growth"
~subject:"Kreditrisiko"
~subject:"Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung"
~subject:"Meta-Analyse"
~subject:"Prognoseverfahren"
~subject:"Schätzung"
~subject:"Simulation"
~subject:"USA"
~subject:"United States"
~subject:"Volatilität"
~subject:"Wirtschaftswachstum"
~subject:"World"
~type_genre:"Collection of articles written by one author"
~type_genre:"Handbuch"
~type_genre:"Non-commercial literature"
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Florax, Raymond J. G. M.
Francois, Joseph F.
Gil-Alaña, Luis A.
Heckman, James J.
Koopman, Siem Jan
Marrewijk, Charles van
Pozzi, Lorenzo
Ravazzolo, Francesco
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51
Predicting the term structure of interest rates : incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information
Pooter, Michiel de
;
Ravazzolo, Francesco
;
Dijk, Dick van
-
2007
-
This version: March 3, 2007
We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372519
Saved in:
52
Idiosyncratic labour income risk and aggregate consumption : an unobserved component approach
Pozzi, Lorenzo
-
2007
We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372981
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53
Likelihood-based analysis for dynamic factor models
Jungbacker, Borus
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
-
2008
We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373811
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54
Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks
Bos, Charles S.
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Ooms, Marius
-
2007
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373822
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55
The effect of the great moderation on the US business cycle in a time-varying multivariate trend-cycle model
Creal, Drew
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Zivot, Eric
-
2008
In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376640
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56
Dynamic factor analysis in the presence of missing data
Jungbacker, Borus
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Wel, Michel van der
-
2011
This paper concerns estimating parameters in a high-dimensional dynamic factormodel by the method of maximum likelihood. To accommodate missing data in theanalysis, we propose a new model representation for the dynamic factor model. Itallows the Kalman filter and related smoothing methods to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377572
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57
Macro, industry and frailty effects in defaults : the 2008 credit crisis in perspective
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, André
;
Schwaab, Bernd
-
2010
We determine the magnitude and nature of systematic default risk using 1971{2009) default data from Moody's. We disentangle systematic risk factors due to business cycle effects, common default dynamics (frailty), and industry-specific dynamics (including contagion). To quantify the contribution...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379607
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58
World
equity premium based risk aversion estimates
Pozzi, Lorenzo
;
Vries, Casper G. de
;
Zenhorst, J.
-
2010
confidence band for the
world
risk aversion estimate from the pooled country data is much tighter and the pooled point estimate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379612
Saved in:
59
A dynamic multivariate heavy-tailed model for time-varying volatilities and correlations
Creal, Drew
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
;
Lucas, André
-
2010
We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380135
Saved in:
60
Systemic risk diagnostics
Schwaab, Bernd
;
Lucas, André
;
Koopman, Siem Jan
-
2010
, and the rest of the
world
. Controlling for global,region-specific, and industry effects, we construct coincident measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382067
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