We explore dynamic linkages between financial/banking sector openness, financial sector competition, and growth. We first develop an analytical model, highlighting links between long-run economic performance and services trade, through scale economies and market and cost structures in the...

In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...