This paper introduces a new solution method for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that produces non explosive paths. The proposed solution method is as fast as standard perturbation methods and can be easily implemented in existing software packages like Dynare as it is...

We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, for a given volatility model. We obtain precise forecasts of the tail of the distribution of returns not only for the 10-days-ahead horizon required by the...

We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the high-dimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors....

In this paper a model, based on the nested multinomial logit model, is used to analyze airport competition and airline competition in a multiple airport region. It is shown that if the frequency elasticity of demand is smaller than 1, airfare-frequency and airport tax equilibria exist and are...

In this paper the reliability of travelling by public transport modes is investigated. We deal with the reliability of travel times in public travel chains. Until now the only research in this field has been directed towards the reliability of trips where only one move is made. Therefore, a new...

Substantial differences exist among fuel taxes in various countries. Thesedifferences represent a form of fiscal competition that has undesirable side effects because it leads to cross-borderfuelling and hence to extra kilometres driven.One possible way of solving the problem of low fuel taxes...

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...