This paper attempts to show how WTO negotiations on liberalisation of environmental goods and services can have a negative or positive impact on the international climate change policy depending on the outcome of the Doha Mandate paragraph 31 debates. Certainly there has been no significant...

Macroeconomic disasters (wars, pandemics, depressions) are characterized by drastic shifts and increased volatility of the aggregate consumption to income ratio. By standard intertemporal budget constraint logic, this ratio is linked to expectations of future income and consumption growth rates....

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...