We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across...

We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. We begin with a stylized model with two producers, one facing low production costs and one higher production costs but potentially lower adjustment costs, competing á la Stackelberg. We find that the supply...

We introduce a dynamic network model with probabilistic link functions that depend on stochastically time-varying parameters. We adopt the widely used blockmodel framework and allow the highdimensional vector of link probabilities to be a function of a low-dimensional set of dynamic factors. The...

Temporal aggregation in general introduces a moving average (MA) component in the aggregated model. A similar feature emerges when not all but only a few variables are aggregated, which generates a mixed frequency model. The MA component is generally neglected, likely to preserve the possibility...