We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B rated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables -- indicators of real activity, inflation and...

"Why are spreads on corporate bonds so wide relative to expected losses from default? The spread on Baa-rated bonds, for example, has been about four times the expected loss. We suggest that the most commonly cited explanations--taxes, liquidity and systematic diffusive risk--are inadequate. We...

This paper examines the role of the natural rate of interest in the conduct of monetary policy. The natural rate figures prominently in many theories of the business cycle and of inflation fluctuations, and therefore has the potential to play a key role in monetary policy given the current...