Our paper studies the relationship between money growth and consumer price inflation in the euro area using wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis allows to account for variations in the money growth-inflation relationship both across the frequency spectrum and across time. We find evidence of...

A major challenge for monetary policy has been predicting how exchange rate movements will impact inflation. We propose a new focus: incorporating the underlying shocks that cause exchange rate fluctuations when evaluating how these fluctuations "pass through" into import and consumer prices. We...

Over the last three decades the supply of economic statistics has vastly improved. Unfortunately, statistics on regional price levels (sub-national purchasing power parities) have been exempt from this positive trend, even though they are indispensable for meaningful spatial comparisons of...

In Germany, package holidays are an important driver of consumer prices. Several challenges arise when measuring the price development of these bundled travel and accommodation services, such as the quality of accommodation and the timing of booking. Statistical practices are currently based on...

The failure to predict the surge in inflation in 2021 raises questions about whether we are better equipped to anticipate a future decline in inflation. What tools do we intend to use for predicting the trajectory of inflation? Are we still primarily relying on survey data regarding inflation...

The shifts in household consumption caused by the coronavirus pandemic affect inflation measurement in the euro area via the updating of product weights. We propose a decomposition of the inflation rate, measured by the annual percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP),...

Using CPI micro data for 11 euro area countries covering about 60% of the euro area consumption basket over the period 2010-2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) each month on average 12.3% of prices change, which compares with 19.3% in the United...

The present paper shows that product-specific regional price dispersion usually causes the Country-Product-Dummy (CPD) method to be biased. In cases where it is not, this index number method is still inefficient and inference is invalid. In view of this, a nonlinear generalization of the CPD...

How much does quality adjustment matter in measuring consumer price inflation? To address this question, we use different sources of micro and macro price data for Germany and the euro area. For Germany, we find that quality adjustment applies to a large range of goods and services but, on...

We study how millions of highly granular and weekly household scanner data combined with novel machine learning techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of the official consumer price index. First,...