explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …

inflation and growth persistence, at both short and long forecast horizons, and that it often improves out-of-sample forecasting …

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real … economy.We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail … variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead.Similarly, principal components …

This study examines the forecasting power of confidence indicators for the Russian econ-omy. ARX models are fitted to … forecasting power. The power is strongly influenced by the way which the in-dicator is constructed from the component series. The … Indicator (BCI) were the best performers in terms of both the information criterion and forecasting accuracy. …

analysis, recursive forecasting and counter factual simulation. Our results demonstrate that the employed methodology is highly …

wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …

provides an appropriate tool for forecasting Chinese business conditions. …

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real … economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People’s Bank of China for forecasting industrial production … sector variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead. Similarly, principal …

-of-sample forecasting performance. Differences across countries are seemingly linked to market liquidity. The paper further finds that the …