This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey.A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is...

Lacking data on price levels across locations (countries, national regions, etc.) for crossspace comparisons, researchers resort to local consumer price indexes (CPIs) over time to evaluate these levels.This approach unfortunately fails to specify, even generally, the exactness of such...

We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that...

The rouble depreciation in H2 2014 and in 2015 led to a substantial rise of prices in the Russian economy amid sanctions. Those and related changes (e.g., foreign trade shocks and related updates of importers' strategies) also influenced price sensitivity (rigidity) to rouble exchange rate...

The monetary policy priority for the coming years is to maintain the inflation rate at 4%, according to the Draft Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2018 and for 2019 and 2020. Monetary authorities will continue to pursue a moderately tight monetary policy, but the objective of...

Russia's current account balance continued to contract in Q3 2017 on the back of stabilizing exports amid rising imports. A financial account surplus was led by foreign capital inflow (FDI) into other sectors, as well as by nonresident purchases of Federal Loan Obligations (OFZs). A double BOP...

Inflation in Russia dropped to 2.5% year-on-year in November 2017, hitting lows not seen in Russia's recent history, in response to a good crop, Russian rouble appreciation and slow demand recovery. It appears to be unlikely that consumer price growth will leap over 2.5–2.7%. The economic...

Russia's current account balance went negative in Q2 2017 due to a growth in imports of goods driven by a strengthening Russian rouble, seasonal growth in imports of services and investment income payments amid stagnating exports of goods after the rising oil price trend grinded to a halt....

In the years preceding the onset of the global financial crisis, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) had two goals: to reduce inflation and limit the real appreciation of the rouble. Given the strength of Russia’s balance of payments during the ten years through the first half of 2008, the de...

We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that...