This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are "infected" by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the trans-mission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in...

This study seeks to determine the extent to which countries of the former Soviet Union are “infected” by the Dutch Disease. We take a detailed look at the functioning of the trans-mission mechanism of the Dutch Disease, i.e. the chains that run from commodity prices to real output in...

In the years preceding the onset of the global financial crisis, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) had two goals: to reduce inflation and limit the real appreciation of the rouble. Given the strength of Russia’s balance of payments during the ten years through the first half of 2008, the de...

This paper uses a variety of empirical methods to examine the apparent differences in monetary policy stances as between the United States and other G7 economies, notably those in the euro area, during the period of sharp increases in oil and other commodity prices in the first half of 2008. In...

This paper studies drivers of high-frequency (daily) dynamics of the South African rand vis-à-vis the dollar from January 2001 to July 2007. We find strong nonlinear effects of commodity prices, perceived country and emerging market risk premium and changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate on...

Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulflling the theoretical conditions of "strict IT", which implies a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a "flexible IT", which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with forex interventions to moderate...

South Africa’s macroeconomic framework has served the economy well, but should be strengthened to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Enhancing the credibility of the inflation target would provide the monetary authorities with more space for flexibility in the face of...