This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.

The paper estimates McCallum and Taylor monetary policy reaction functions, and hybrids mixing instruments and targets from the two frameworks, for 20 emerging market economies. McCallum-Taylor specifications with an interest rate instrument and a nominal income gap target perform better than...

The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has,...

The paper examines the relative significance of monetary aggregates and interest rates in China using the information approach to monetary policy. The analysis reveals the superiority and robustness of a narrow monetary aggregate in contributing information about future movements in inflation.

​The paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on income inequality in China. The empirical modelling finds that a battery of monetary indicators, including a monetary overhang measure derived from a money demand equation, and the change in the unemployment rate lead to increases in the...

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that only those considering many predictors via a principal component display a better relative forecasting performance than the univariate benchmark.

The paper estimates McCallum and Taylor monetary policy reaction functions, and hybrids mixing instruments and targets from the two frameworks, for 20 emerging market economies. McCallum-Taylor specifications with an interest rate instrument and a nominal income gap target perform better than...

The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has,...

The paper examines the relative significance of monetary aggregates and interest rates in China using the information approach to monetary policy. The analysis reveals the superiority and robustness of a narrow monetary aggregate in contributing information about future movements in inflation.