Les nations du sud de la zone Euro ont connu la prospérité dans les années qui ont suivi la création de la monnaie unique. Le bond de la consommation et l’élévation du niveau de vie se sont hélas révélés être des mirages. En favorisant un endettement massif, l’Euro a encouragé un...

Monetary policy contributes to stabilize growth. Particularly in a reforming context for financial and economic activities, it is important to know how central bankers’ decisions through the short term interest rate of the money market are transmitted to the real variables: the GDP and the...

It is shown that backward-forward procedure which selects solutions in dynamic models with rational expectations may fail to give a solution when the lags are of order two.

Evidence of the causal long-term relationship between budget deficit, money growth and inflation in Colombia is analyzed in this paper, considering the standard (M1), the narrowest (M0-Base) and the broadest (M3) definitions of money supply. Using a vector error correction (VEC) model with...

Inflation shocks are one of the pitfalls of developing economies and are usually difficult to hedge. This paper examines the optimal strategic asset allocation for a Brazilian investor seeking to hedge inflation risk at different horizons, ranging from one to 30 years. Using a...

En este documento se estima un modelo econométrico que descompone la seriede inflación trimestral anualizada entre un componente transitorio y otropermanente, este último inducido probablemente por las variaciones en la metadel Banco Central. Se concluye que la persistencia inflacionaria se...

The exceptional rise in government deficits following the subprime crisis, the recent commodity price spikes and the increase in inflation volatility have revived the debate on medium to long-term resurgence of inflation. Using a vector-autoregressive model, this paper investigates the...

The unconventional monetary policies implemented in the wake of the subprime crisis and the recent increase in inflation volatility have revived the debate on medium to long-term resurgence of inflation. This paper presents the optimal strategic asset allocation for investors seeking to hedge...