This study presents a GDP per capita level and growth comparison across 17 main advanced countries and over the 1890-2013 long period. It proposes also a comparison of the level and growth of the main components of GDP per capita through an accounting breakdown and runs Philips-Sul (2007)...

Governments and central banks need to have an accurate and timely assessment of Gross Domestic Product's (GDP) growth rate for the current quarter, as this is essential for providing a reliable and early analysis of the current economic situation. This paper presents a series of models conceived...

This paper presents a revised version of the model OPTIM, proposed by Irac and Sédillot (2002), used at the Banque de France in order to predict French GDP quarterly growth rate, for the current and next quarters. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly...

In this paper we focus on cycles and trends of some macroeconomic and housing market variables representative of the French economy. In a first part, we empirically show that cycles in the housing sector, measured by housing prices, housing starts, building permits, sales or residential...

The quantitative and dynamic consequence of a social VAT reform, i.e. a fiscal reform consisting in substituting VAT for social contributions, is assessed using two general equilibrium models. The first one is a Walrasian model with no other frictions than distortionary taxation of labor and...

En este trabajo se cuantifica el contenido informativo de los Índices de Confianza utilizados por el Banco de la República en la elaboración de su Informe sobre Inflación. Se estudian las frecuencias a las que ocurren sus variaciones y se comparan con las frecuencias de medidas similares de...

Este documento estudia una parte relevante del mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria asociado con el crédito bancario. Con tal objeto se estima un modelo VARXGARCH multivariado para establecer la relación, en frecuencia diaria, entre dos tasas de interés de corto plazo, la CDT y...

En este documento se calcula la tasa de cambio real de equilibrio y su desalineamiento. Este último entendido como la diferencia entre la tasa real de cambio observada y la tasa de equilibrio. Para llevar a cabo este ejercicio se utiliza el enfoque de tendencias comunes asociadas a un modelo...

Con la adopción de la política de 'Inflación Objetivo' en un buen número de países, uno de los principales objetivos de los bancos centrales se ha convertido en encontrar modelos que puedan dar una idea de la trayectoria de la inflación en el largo plazo. En este orden de ideas el presente...

Empirical techniques to assess market comovements are numerous from cointegration to dynamic conditional correlations. This paper uses the fractal properties of asset returns and presents estimations of Markov switching multifractal models [as MSM] to give new insights about short and long run...