This paper presents a Bayesian vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy to aid in policy making. Forecasts of this model can be used as a useful input in constructing a macroeconomic scenario. The model is also useful in monetary programming.

This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a...

The kind of prior typically employed in Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) analysis has aroused widespread suspicion about the ability of these models to capture long-run patterns. This paper specifies a bivariate cointegrated stochastic process and conducts a Monte Carlo experiment to assess...