Spanish abstract:Las Corporaciones Locales han registrado desde 2012 un superávit fiscal, que contrasta con el déficit registrado en el resto de las Administraciones Públicas. A pesar de la heterogeneidad en la composición del sector, esta mejora en las finanzas públicas se extiende a una...

Estimating the role of the business cycle on the General Government budget balance plays a key role on the real-time analysis of fiscal policy, especially under the Stability and Growth Pact framework. This paper studies, for a group of EU countries and the United Kingdom, the revisions in the...

For central banks, it is crucial to develop and maintain risk identification frameworks that allow them to detect in good time and address potential threats to financial stability with the most appropriate policy tools. This paper reviews the main indicators developed for this purpose by the...

English Abstract: The main proposals for the reform of the European Union’s fiscal policy framework affect three blocks of issues: (i) simplifying the rules to make them more transparent and flexible; (ii) incorporating new supranational risk-sharing instruments into the Economic and Monetary...

After the financial and economic crisis in Europe, a broad consensus has emerged that a stronger fiscal dimension may be needed to complete the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). This paper analyses the performance of interregional transfers in existing fiscal-federal systems,...

The recent burst of the house price bubble in the United States and its spillover effects on real economies worldwide has rekindled the interest in the role of housing in the business cycle. In this paper, we investigate the relationships between housing cycles among the four major euro area...

This paper describes the econometric models used by the Banco de España to monitor consumer price inflation and forecast its future trends. The strategy followed heavily relies on the results from a set of econometric models, supplemented by expert judgment. We consider three different types of...

Spanish Abstract: En este documento se presentan de forma breve los principales usos de las estadísticas de precios de consumo, prestando especial atención a la predicción de la inflación mediante modelos econométricos. También se realizan algunas propuestas de cara a aumentar la utilidad...

English Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to provide a set of stylised facts on the regularities of cyclical patterns in Spain compared with those of the major European countries and to analyse the synchronisation of the main real variables of these economies, which have close trading and...

This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find, consistently with recent international evidence, that the inflationary effect of oil price changes is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation...