This paper proposes a Markov-switching framework to endogenously identify periods where economies are more likely to:(i) synchronously enter recessionary and expansionary phases, and (ii) follow independent business cycles. The reliability of the framework is validated with simulated data in...

We rely on a hierarchical volatility factor approach to estimate and decompose time-varying second moments of countries output growth into global, regional and idiosyncratic contributions. We document a “global moderation” of international business cycles, defined as a persistent decline in...