Surveys of Professional Forecasters produce precise and timely point forecasts for key macroeconomic variables. However, the accompanying density forecasts are not as widely utilized, and there is no consensus about their quality. This is partly because such surveys are often conducted for...

We contribute to the recent debate on the instability of the slope of the Phillips curve by offering insights from a flexible time-varying instrumental variable approach robust to weak instruments. Our robust approach focuses directly on the Phillips curve and allows general forms of...