Target prices are an estimation of the future value of a company’s stock price. Although there is a general consensus about the importance of firm’s fundamentals when forecasting, there are also other determinants. This article sheds light on the effects of uncertainty, financial stress and...

This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle by adapting the multiple change-point model proposed by Camacho, Gadea and Gómez Loscos (2021). In that approach, each individual pair of specific peaks and troughs from a set of indicators is viewed as a...

This paper estimates the volatility index term structure for the Spanish bank industry (SBVX) using the implied volatility of individual banks and assuming market correlation risk premium. This methodology enables calculating a volatility index for arbitrary (non-traded) portfolios. Using data...

This paper analyses the effects of decentralized multinational banks, characterized by the large autonomy of the affiliates that the banking group has abroad, on bank's risk, using Spanish confidential supervisory data. Having activity abroad, in countries whose business and financial cycles may...

Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two...

This paper aims to identify how much of the recent current account adjustment in Spain can be explained by cyclical factors. For this purpose, we consider the cross-country regressions in the IMF's External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology but allowing for country-specific slopes and...

This paper uses detailed micro data on service exports at the firm-destination-service level to analyse the role of firm heterogeneity in shaping aggregate service exports in Belgium, France, Germany and Spain from 2003 to 2007. We decompose the level and the growth of aggregate service exports...

This paper examines the links between productivity and social welfare, with an application to the banking industry. It models spatial price competition between bank branches jointly with banks' decisions on the opening or closing of branches based on profit expectations. The model predicts that...

This paper introduces a sectoral model for the Spanish economy that allows a better understanding of the propagation of sector-specific shocks taking into account different network interdependencies. In particular, the model features sector interactions along several dimensions in an open...

We present a house price-at-risk (HaR) model that fits the historical developments in the Spanish housing market. By means of quantile regressions we show that a model including quarterly real house price growth, a misalignment measure and a consumer confidence index is able to accurately...