In this paper we estimate the income distributional effects of the common agricultural policy (CAP) for farmers and landowners. First, we theoretically analyse the level of farmers' and landowners' gains from coupled and decoupled payments. Second, using a unique farm level panel data set from...

The Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in July 1997, and rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries. An important question then arises? Is it possible to predict next financial crisis? If yes, then what are the predictors? The answer lies in combined usage of economic theory...

The free movement of workers is a highly controversial issue with regard to the Eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU). Members of the EU are extremely anxious of mass immigration flows from Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs). This paper estimates the potential migration and...

In this paper we develop an analytically solvable and structurally estimable economic geography model and apply it to predict migration flows for the period following the CEE’s integration with the EU. The main innovation of our approach is that it endogenises both explanatory variables and...

The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample eval-uation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22...

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained...

We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and...

Few authors have studied, either asymptotically or in finite samples, the size and power of seasonal unit root tests when the data generating process [DGP] is a non-stationary alternative aside from the seasonal random walk. In this respect, Ghysels, lee and Noh (1994) conducted a simulation...

Many empirical studies find a negative correlation between the returns on the nominal spot exchange rate and the lagged forward discount. This forward discount anomaly implies that the current forward rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate. A large number of studies in the existing...

We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches to forecasting using dynamic factor models. The first approach extracts the seasonal component of the individual indicators before estimating the dynamic factor model, while the alternative uses the non-seasonally adjusted data...