In this paper we estimate the income distributional effects of the common agricultural policy (CAP) for farmers and landowners. First, we theoretically analyse the level of farmers' and landowners' gains from coupled and decoupled payments. Second, using a unique farm level panel data set from...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of customer capital accumulation at the firm level. We build an analytically tractable search model of firm dynamics in which firms compete for customers by posting pricing contracts in the product market. Cross-sectional price dispersion...

We analyse the incidence of endogenous entry and firm TFP-heterogeneity on the response of aggregate inflation to exogenous shocks. We build up an otherwise standard DSGE model in which the number of firms is endogenously determined and firms differ in their steady state level of productivity....

This paper examines the links between productivity and social welfare, with an application to the banking industry. It models spatial price competition between bank branches jointly with banks' decisions on the opening or closing of branches based on profit expectations. The model predicts that...

We analyze monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions. Firms differ in their productivity and net worth and face collateral constraints that cause capital misallocation. TFP endogenously depends on the time-varying distribution of firms. Although a...

The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample eval-uation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22...

The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained...

We apply a recently proposed Bayesian model selection technique, known as stochastic model specification search, for characterising the nature of the trend in macroeconomic time series. We illustrate that the methodology can be quite successfully applied to discriminate between stochastic and...

Few authors have studied, either asymptotically or in finite samples, the size and power of seasonal unit root tests when the data generating process [DGP] is a non-stationary alternative aside from the seasonal random walk. In this respect, Ghysels, lee and Noh (1994) conducted a simulation...

Many empirical studies find a negative correlation between the returns on the nominal spot exchange rate and the lagged forward discount. This forward discount anomaly implies that the current forward rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate. A large number of studies in the existing...