forecast output growth and inflation for the current calendar year and the next, implying that the forecast horizon changes …, aiming at obtaining a correctly calibrated fixed-horizon density forecast. Using data from the US Survey of Professional … on historical forecast errors or Bayesian VARs. Thus, our proposed fixed-horizon predictive densities are a new and …

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so … choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, and forecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent …

usefulness of the proposed methods to measure the strength of identification in two empirical situations: the estimation of the …