Business cycle correlations are state-dependent and higher in recessions than in expansions. In this paper, I suggest a mechanism to explain why this is the case. For this purpose, I build an international real business cycle model with occasionally binding constraints on capacity utilization...

We measure the time-varying strength of macro-financial linkages within and across the US and euro area economies by employing a large set of information for each region. In doing so, we rely on factor models with drifting parameters where real and financial cycles are extracted, and shocks are...

In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recession, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...

We investigate heterogeneity and spillovers in macro-financial linkages across developed economies, with a particular emphasis on the most recent recession. A panel Bayesian VAR model including real and financial variables identifies a statistically significant common component, which proves to...

‘The Great Recession' was preceded by a prolonged period of high growth accompanied by low and stable inflation, the so-called ‘Great Moderation'. During that period, potential growth estimates were trending upwards and output gaps remained small. However, other imbalances were progressively...

We rely on a hierarchical volatility factor approach to estimate and decompose time-varying second moments of countries output growth into global, regional and idiosyncratic contributions. We document a “global moderation” of international business cycles, defined as a persistent decline in...

Large US firms, by diffusing embodied technology through trade in intermediates, appear to drive Europe’s output over the medium term. We develop a two-country model of endogenous growth in varieties, cross-country firm heterogeneity and trade to match this evidence. A US TFP slowdown...

This paper describes a paradox of global thrift. Consider a world in which interest rates are low and monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Now imagine that governments implement prudential financial and fiscal policies to stabilize the economy. We show that these policies,...

High unemployment and fiscal austerity during the Great Recession have led to significant migration outfl ows in those European countries that suffered a deep deterioration of their economy, Greece being the most obvious case. This paper introduces endogenous migration in a small open economy...

To analyze the international transmission of business cycle fluctuations, we propose a new multilevel dynamic factor model with a block structure that (i) does not restrict the factors to being orthogonal and (ii) mixes data sampled at quarterly and monthly frequencies. By means of Monte Carlo...