This paper presents a survey of output gap modeling techniques, which are of special interest for policy making institutions. We distinguish between univariate - which estimate trend output on the basis of actual output, without taking into account the information contained in other variables -...

Filters constructed on the basis of standard local polynomial regression (LPR) methods have been used in the literature to estimate the business cycle. We provide a frequency domain interpretation of the contrast filter obtained by the difference between a series and its long-run LPR component...

Although there is a vast literature on GDP comovement across countries, there is scant evidence on inflation interdependence. We analyze inflation comovements across a wide set of advanced economies and across the subset of euro area countries. Some of our findings are expected, such as the fact...

The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment,...

This paper presents US and euro area estimates for a fully heterogeneous model, in which there is a continuum of firms setting prices with a constant probability of adjustment, which may differ from firm to firm. The estimated model accurately matches the empirical distribution function of...

This paper shows that the standard Calvo model clearly fails to account for the distribution of price durations found in micro data. We propose a novel price setting model that fully captures heterogeneity in individual pricing behavior. Specifically, we assume that there is a continuum of firms...

We propose a method to adjust for data outliers in Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), which allows for different outlier magnitudes across variables and rescales the reduced form error terms. We use the method to document several facts about the effect of outliers on estimation and...

Using CPI micro data for 11 euro area countries, covering 60% of the European consumption basket over the period 2010-2019, we document new findings on consumer price rigidity in the euro area: (i) on average 12.3% of prices change each month, compared with 19.3% in the United States; however,...

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that provides real-time information on asymmetric risks in the outlook for inflation. The asymmetries are generated by nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework estimated...

A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB reviews of their strategies. Using a standard...