Existing home sales' share of Canada's economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity...

We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Impulse response functions are then estimated using local projections. This...

This note uses industry data and a unique dataset of small and medium-sized merchants to provide insights into the acquirer-merchant market in Canada. Three main findings are presented. First, smaller merchants pay their acquirer more for every dollar of card payment than larger merchants....

We provide an analysis of cash trends in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the pandemic period, we explore the implications on demand for, use of and access to cash. We find that cash demand has been strong pre-pandemic and increased sharply during the pandemic. While...

We construct new indicators of the imbalance between demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. The results show that the text-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data...

We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment. We also consider whether a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would address unmet payment needs in a cashless society. Most adult Canadians do not experience gaps in...

Forecast combinations, also known as ensemble models, routinely require practitioners to select a model from a massive number of potential candidates. Ten explanatory variables can be grouped into 21078 forecast combinations, and the number of possibilities increases further to 21078+21078 if we...

We use consumer surveys conducted in April, July and November 2020 to study how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the demand for cash and the use of various methods of payment. Continuing from Chen et al. (2020, 2021), we use data from the Bank Note Distribution System (BNDS) to track how the...

We conduct a follow-up to Chen et al. (2020) and study demand for and use of cash after the containment measures imposed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic were relaxed during the summer of 2020. We find that bank notes in circulation continued to rise in July due to ongoing cash...

We provide an update on the impact the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for cash and the use of methods of payment based on data from the Bank Note Distribution System and from consumer surveys conducted in April and August 2021. Our key findings are as follows: Cash in circulation remained high...