Showing 1 - 10 of 31
We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk. The cross-country high-minuslow (HML) conditional skewness of the unemployment gap—our measure of global macroeconomic uncertainty—is a factor that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011564712
The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This … trade in the interbank market. Relationships matter for banks’ bidding strategies at the central bank auction and introduce … anomalies in the level of interest rates—namely, that banks sometimes trade above (below) the central bank’s lending (deposit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011564713
of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often …, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. This way, it is … straightforward to compare statements and see how the central bank's thinking has evolved. This paper studies to what extent such …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011564717
We greatly expand the space of tractable term-structure models. We consider one example that combines positive yields with rich volatility and correlation dynamics. Bond prices are expressed in closed form and estimation is straightforward. We find that the early stages of a recession have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011481494
Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data. Imposing a positivity constraint and discrete increments significantly increases the accuracy of model out-of-sample forecasts for the level and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014431
This paper proposes a novel asymptotic least-squares estimator of multi-country Gaussian dynamic term structure models that is easy to compute and asymptotically efficient, even when the number of countries is relatively large - a situation in which other recently proposed approaches lose their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014442
We use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada. We show that it is crucial to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014447
the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014466
Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth. Ambiguity can help resolve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014479
This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. The model includes two groups of households: (i) wealthier households, who own financial assets and can smooth consumption...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012014522