This paper extracts measures of monetary policy surprises for Australia, Canada and the United States using a latent factor framework. We distinguish monetary policy surprises which occur when central banks report new assessments of the economy (or do not reinforce changes expected by market...

The deviance information criterion (DIC) has been widely used for Bayesian model comparison. However, recent studies have cautioned against the use of the DIC for comparing latent variable models. In particular, the DIC calculated using the conditional likelihood (obtained by conditioning on the...

The misevaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understand- ing the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. This paper characterizes the evolution of factors affecting collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime-mortgage backed...

The empirical support for a DSGE type of real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure that makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extended to...

Empirical modelling of the international linkages between the Euro Area and the US requires an open economy specification. This paper proposes and implements a structural VECM framework which imposes long run and short run cross-economy restrictions based on theoretically motivated restrictions...

Jointly identifying the effects of both fiscal and monetary policy shocks in an open economy structural VAR poses identification challenges. The innovations in this paper are to combine the methods of identification via sign restrictions, cointegration and traditional exclusion restrictions...

Empirical modelling of the international linkages between the Euro Area and the US requires an open economy specification. This paper proposes and implements a structural VECM framework which imposes long run and short run cross-economy restrictions based on theoretically motivated restrictions...

Jointly identifying the effects of both fiscal and monetary policy shocks in an open economy structural VAR poses identification challenges. The innovations in this paper are to combine the methods of identification via sign restrictions, cointegration and traditional exclusion restrictions...

The misevaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understand- ing the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. This paper characterizes the evolution of factors affecting collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime-mortgage backed...

The empirical support for a DSGE type of real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure that makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extended to...